1992/06/23 City Council Resolution (15)RESOLUTION NO. 92-100
OF THE CITY OF ROHNERT PARK
COMMENTING ON THE
ASSOCIATION OF BAY AREA GOVERNMENT'S DRAFT
"PROJECTIONS '9211
WHEREAS, the Association of the Bay Area Governments
prepared "Projections 19211 as the latest in its series
al economic and demographic projections; and
(ABAG) has
of region-
WHEREAS, ABAG has transmitted the draft projections to local
governments, including Sonoma County and its cities, for review
and comment; and
WHEREAS, due to the increasing significance of ABAG's projections
as the basis for regional housing needs determinations, conges-
tion management plans and other planning efforts, the City of
Rohnert Park has worked closely with other Sonoma County local
governments to coordinate a joint response to the draft "projec-
tions 192"; and
WHEREAS, the county and cities have transmitted preliminary
comments to ABAG, and worked with ABAG staff to achieve
modifications of the initial projections that better reflect
local general plans, development constraints and infrastructure
financing costs; and
WHEREAS, ABAG responded by making adjustments to its initial
projections, but did not fully respond to all of the individual
concerns of Sonoma County and its cities;
NOW, THEREFORE, BE IT RESOLVED, that the City of Rohnert Park
hereby acknowledges ABAG's "Projections 19211 and submits the
attached comments and recommendations regarding ABAG's draft
"Projections 192.11
DULY AND REGULARLY ADOPTED this 23rd day of June, 1992.
ATTEST:
Deputy City
Clerk
CITY OF ROHNERT PARK
Mayor
-s-A-t. r�.
F-CKa'LHO! Y :��
0
TO: Board of
PROM: City and
DATE: June 3,
RE: Comments
I. BACKGROUND
Supervisors and City Councils
County Planning Directors
1992
on ABAG Draft Projections '92
The Association of Bay Area Governments (ABAG) has the
responsibility under California law to prepare demographic and
economic projections for the Bay Area region. These projections
are significant because they are used to prepare Regional Housing
Needs Determinations, which must be addressed in the Housing
Elements of local general plans. In addition, use of ABAG
projections is required ir. the preparation of Congestion Management
Plans. The forecasts are also used by a variety of public and
Private institution3 in assessing regional growth trends. ABAG
updates their projections every two years; this update incorporates
1990 Census data and extends the time frame of ABAG's 1990
projections from 2005 to 2010.
ABAG`s 1992 projections were originally submitted for local review
in b:arch 1992. During the review by city and county staff, ABAG
staff expressed a willingness to revise the initial projections to
reflect local concerns, including local growth policies, building
activity trends and infrastructure constraints. Table 1 shows that
the cooperative effort by city/county planning staffs have resulted
in some success in modifying the initial forecasts: population
projections for cities in 2005 were revised downwards from 368,400
to 355,300, while unincorporated area projections were revised
downwards from 145,600 to 145,570. Initial projections for cities
in 2010 were revised from 390,300 to 385,460, while projections for
unincorporated areas were revised from 155,850 to 152,200.
II. SU",aliARY COI-M NTS ON COUNTYWIDE PROJECTIONS
Specific comments by individual jurisdictions are as follows:
Cloverdale. Reduce 2005 population projection to 9,090 and
2010 projection to 10,280 in recognition of sewer collection
and treatment, road and. school constraints. Reduce
employment projections to reflect recent market analysis
indicating that job growth in Cloverdale is likely to be about
100 jobs per year.
Healdsburq. Reduce 2005 projections to 12,610 population and
5,210 households and 2010 projections to 13,780 populations and
5,650 households for consistency with adopted General P - -oi,
Windsor. Reduce projections to more closely resemble the
Windsor Specific Plan projections (24,100 in 2005).
Santa Rosa. ABAG 92 (Revised) projections are
acceptable.
sebastopol_. Reduce 2005 projections to 9,240 population and
3,700 households, and 2010 projections to 9,550 populal..jrm and
3,840 households, based on land supply, water deli `;(!i:y and
sewer collection and treatment constraints.
Rohnert Part. Reduce 2005 population projection to 44,400.
Cotati. Population projections appear fairly consistent with
the adopted city General Plan. Reduce employment projections
to reflect limited cownercial /industrial land availability and
historic 'employment growth trends.
Pet luma. ABAG population forecasts are in keeping with city
General Plan projections. The number of housing units
required does not exceed the maximum number of units permitted
under the city's Growth Management System.
Sonoma. Projections for 1995 should reflect fact that new
residential sewer hookups Will be limited to 223 units for the
next 2 -3 years, and the city's Growth management Ordinance
will limit development thereafter to 100 units per year.
Based on this, the population projection for 2000 should be
reduced to 9,790.
Un . Reduce population projections for 2005
to reflect County General Plan projections for unincorporated
areas. For 2010, reduce projections so that they are
consistent with the residential holding capacity of the
General Plan land use map and historic growth rates. Make
corresponding reductions in household and employed resident
projections, but continue to use the higher average household
sizes of Projections 192, as they better reflect historic
trends in the unincorporated county. Reduce the projected
rates of job growth so that they do not exceed historic 1980-
90 growth rates in any planning area.
III. COUNTYWIDE RECOY4ENDATION
ABAG should revise
employed resident
projections, which
constraints and the
local projections a
of growth should nc
2005.
population projections and related household,
and employment projections to reflect local
are based on local analysis of infrastructure
ability to finance needed improvements. Where
re unavailable (ie. for 2010), projected rates
t exceed the locally projected trend for 1990
utti aocaL:
125,500 135,350 14'.1, ",00
135,600
155,850
ABAG 92 t c7vised)
ASAGr
262,800
3041,00
3.4.,400
36":00
g�
ABAG 9^ (Rc%ised)
262,500
294,5:0
'140
loc
355,300
x45,450
•1 .6 2.37 ro
City Projections
251,5;0
287
31',540
Percent
l�ific,�r:c<
7urisdictior Source
Courts Gcn,rai Plan
256,7;0
?81.640
306x201
331.3yQ
NA
Change'
1>ctw,,Q.0
of Pra' �tion
Su^ of City- County Plats
1994
1945
2C;�0
2U0
2AI0
ABAG 92
to 42R
421: aftC?
Pro;ectio :ts
ty o lover e
433,;;0
468.540
NA
ABAG 92
All numbers rounded to Cents, 10. 3. ABAG ,projtr ors for cities are for spheres of intiuerce.
61-400
7,900
9.500
12,300
13,WO
ABAG 92 (Revised)
6.400
1,300
9,490
11,500
13,6501
256 "0
16 S ). %,
-City Projections
6.400
6,150
1.900
9,090
10,280
City of Hcaldsburg
ABAG 92
9 900
11,700
13 500
15,600
17,500'
ABAG 92 (R:viscd)
9,900
11,000
12,250
13,390 `
15,160
-I=.44 c
10.15176
City Projections
9:210
10,290
11,440
12,610 f
13,780
City of Windsor
ABAG 92
13,600
ISIM
24,000
21)8,500
31,400 t
ABAG 9'7. (Rose.:)
13,600
18,340
24,010
0
2S AO ff
31,600
0.63 0
1950 c
Cou ,tv So. Plan
10,500
15,400
.0
24,100 {
NA
City of Santa Rasa
ABAG 92
128,700
L`0,900
171,000
178,1^0 !!
183,700
ABAG 9r (Revisc4)
129,700
143,520
154,370
1.55950 i
179,0
- 2 -24'!e
Q.76"0
city PmJ ect ris
123,700 }
14? 70U
154,100
iF.4.100 i
174,500
CiTy of Sebastopol
ABAG 92
ABAG 92
B ;160
4,.00
9,700
9,700
10,000 I
(Revised)
8,;00
8,560 9,420
9,300
9,750
- 2.56 ,7o
-0,6577
l.tt ?'i 0' Cti4nS
:,1001
8;450
8.940 1
9.
9,�1�
City of Rohner, Pk-
-T
-
ABAG 92
JO i
39,700
43,304(
46.7W
50.1100
ABAG 92 (ReviSCd)
�i,3Cd I
39,160
42,740 j
•46,160
49,770
1.06:
3.96?a
City Projections
3 "?00
38.: �C�0
jj
;,4Cv i
NA
CI ?Y of CtJt3tl
A. AG 92
6.-00
7,000
7,300
1,100
7 400
ABAG 92 (Revised)
6,300
7.040
7 „00
7,680 '
f
8,140
9.Te,
•12 o3;b
Ci Pro coons
5, ",•00
6.700
7,760
8.790
NA
City of Petaluma
ABAG 92
44,100
49,A)
55,500
59,10G
63,100
ABAG 92 (Revised)
44,100
49,430
5:,530
59,6$0
63,950
13370
-5.73 c
CityProiections
"3,860
50,310
56,810
63310 `
NA
City of Sonoma
e1BAG 92
8,46-0
10,400
11,60.0
12_300 }
13,500
ABAG 9- (Revisc.3)
8.700 +
9,390
ll,Oc0
12,4-10 i
13.760 ``
I.16:°:
14.92%
City Pro ccticns
8.070 1
-8.340
9.790.
10.8151
+,tom ,l
utti aocaL:
125,500 135,350 14'.1, ",00
135,600
155,850
ABAG 92 t c7vised)
ASAGr
262,800
3041,00
3.4.,400
36":00
g�
ABAG 9^ (Rc%ised)
262,500
294,5:0
'140
5,190
355,300
x45,450
•1 .6 2.37 ro
City Projections
251,5;0
287
31',540
347.083
NA
353.30.0 439,,+50 4.$7,100
Courts Gcn,rai Plan
256,7;0
?81.640
306x201
331.3yQ
NA
500,870
nincorporatcd ota!s:
•I.58c 6.90 ,70
Su^ of City- County Plats
353,770 353,180 I 424, 0
40,135
- --
ARAG 92
125,500 135,350 14'.1, ",00
135,600
155,850
ABAG 92 t c7vised)
125.540 132,460 139:990
145,570
152100
-2 40^0 28.77%
County General P':ari
95,530 101,6:0 107;0
113,050
NA
L
unty ota,s:
_
t1BAG 92.
353.30.0 439,,+50 4.$7,100
514,000
546,150
ABAG 92 (R�:sed)
34340 426,500 + 465,730
500,870
537.600
•I.58c 6.90 ,70
Su^ of City- County Plats
353,770 353,180 I 424, 0
40,135
NA
Counts Gencrai Plar.
363,200 395,310
433,;;0
468.540
NA
1. NA means not available. I
City
All numbers rounded to Cents, 10. 3. ABAG ,projtr ors for cities are for spheres of intiuerce.
projections reflect adopted pL,ns or recent estimates ty city staff. 4. Uniaccrpvratcd
5. County General Plan pr*c::ions for 1995 2--,id 2000 art interpolated. 6.
tut-1-71 arc for ar_ :s outside city spPtereq.
dcxs not equal Cou,?} General
Tse sum of cite
Plan totals due to recent rtv9siors to city D- O;e_tiocs.
and uninco=,-amd 3r ea projections